QUIET CANDLE

DIARY

Do Bollinger Bands work?

Band width, reversal, breakout, squeeze and band walk: 12 tests.

RESULTConclusion

  • All H1 mean-reversion tests lost. Breakouts improved with wider bands, reaching +1.0% at 3σ, which is close to zero.
  • On daily bars the result flipped: reversal made +11.9% and breakout −14.4%, the opposite of H1.
  • The daily reversal failed the recheck: with swap, its first half was −0.7%.

BEFORE AND AFTER COSTSBefore and after costs

Before costsAfter costs

0−44%+11%fade 2s D1fade 2s D1 before costs +13.2%fade 2s D1 after costs +11.9%break 3s H1break 3s H1 before costs +8.3%break 3s H1 after costs +1.0%band walk H1band walk H1 before costs +8.9%band walk H1 after costs −2.4%break 2.5s H1break 2.5s H1 before costs +13.7%break 2.5s H1 after costs −3.7%squeeze break H1squeeze break H1 before costs +1.2%squeeze break H1 after costs −13.0%break 2s D1break 2s D1 before costs −13.1%break 2s D1 after costs −14.4%fade 3s H1fade 3s H1 before costs −9.2%fade 3s H1 after costs −16.6%break 2s H1break 2s H1 before costs +5.1%break 2s H1 after costs −23.1%break 1.5s H1break 1.5s H1 before costs +7.1%break 1.5s H1 after costs −30.2%fade 2.5s H1fade 2.5s H1 before costs −15.6%fade 2.5s H1 after costs −33.4%fade 2s H1fade 2s H1 before costs −7.1%fade 2s H1 after costs −36.3%fade 1.5s H1fade 1.5s H1 before costs −8.7%fade 1.5s H1 after costs −47.3%

ALL TESTSAll 12 tests

ConditionTradesWin rateBefore costsAfter costs1st half2nd halfRandom avg
fade 1.5s H125,03864.4%−8.7%−47.3%−29.1%−18.2%−42.3%
break 1.5s H124,90232.6%+7.1%−30.2%−19.4%−10.8%−35.9%
fade 2s H119,10162.3%−7.1%−36.3%−23.2%−13.1%−32.2%
break 2s H119,02034.7%+5.1%−23.1%−15.1%−8.0%−27.3%
fade 2.5s H111,90659.7%−15.6%−33.4%−19.9%−13.5%−18.9%
break 2.5s H111,88137.3%+13.7%−3.7%−4.2%+0.5%−17.0%
fade 3s H15,14658.2%−9.2%−16.6%−11.1%−5.5%−7.6%
break 3s H15,14139.1%+8.3%+1.0%+0.6%+0.4%−8.2%
fade 2s D191863.8%+13.2%+11.9%+3.8%+8.1%−6.0%
break 2s D191636.1%−13.1%−14.4%−5.6%−8.8%+3.4%
squeeze break H19,59534.3%+1.2%−13.0%−7.7%−5.3%−14.3%
band walk H17,86037.4%+8.9%−2.4%−0.6%−1.9%−10.9%

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This diary records tests on historical data. It does not recommend any method or symbol and does not indicate future profit or loss. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.