DIARY
If you knew it would rise, would you win?
A thought experiment that cheats with future data on purpose. It can't be used in real trading.
RESULTConclusion
- Cheating with future data to know a week will rise, simply buying at the start and holding made +157.5%.
- Adding technique to the same cheat made results worse: RSI dips +19.9%, breakouts +30.7%, random entries +40.9%. RSI and breakouts fell below random.
- These used equal take-profit and stop (2 ATR), so they exited during the rise. If you know it will rise, holding was best.
- Replacing the cheat with “above SMA200 means uptrend” almost erased the advantage (RSI 0.0%, pullback −16.5%). The hard part is not the method; it's knowing the rise.
BY RULEResult by how the rise is known
After costs, long only, excluding swap. The “cheat” columns can't be used in real trading.
| How to buy | Cheat (week) | Cheat (month) | Only above SMA200 | Always |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy at the start and hold | +157.5% | +79.6% | +9.4% | +13.0% |
| RSI dip buying | +19.9% | +7.9% | 0.0% | −6.2% |
| SMA20 pullback | +63.7% | +19.5% | −16.5% | −19.7% |
| 20-bar breakout | +30.7% | +12.7% | −10.0% | −20.4% |
| Random entries | +40.9% | +13.9% | −9.5% | −19.8% |
HOW MUCH MUST YOU KNOWHow accurate must you be?
Average result of holding 252 weeks across 17 symbols at each direction accuracy. Break-even is about 51% in this calculation, and on weekly holds a small accuracy edge is worth a lot. But this ignores swap and correlation between symbols. So far, this diary has found no method that reliably delivers more than 51%.
This diary records tests on historical data. It does not recommend any method or symbol and does not indicate future profit or loss. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.