QUIET CANDLE

DIARY

Does MACD work?

Settings, timeframes, zero line, histogram and divergence: 10 tests.

RESULTConclusion

  • Only 1 of 10 was positive after costs (+0.7%), and it lost in the second half.
  • The slower 19-39-9 made +35.1% before costs, better than the standard 12-26-9 (+19.7%) and better than random. After costs it was still −12.0%.
  • More trades meant bigger losses from costs. The spread outweighed the small pre-cost bias.

BEFORE AND AFTER COSTSBefore and after costs

Before costsAfter costs

0−96%+28%cross 5-35-5 D1cross 5-35-5 D1 before costs +5.8%cross 5-35-5 D1 after costs +0.7%cross 12-26-9 D1cross 12-26-9 D1 before costs −2.2%cross 12-26-9 D1 after costs −5.2%cross 19-39-9 H1cross 19-39-9 H1 before costs +35.1%cross 19-39-9 H1 after costs −12.0%cross beyond zero H1cross beyond zero H1 before costs +13.0%cross beyond zero H1 after costs −18.6%divergence H1divergence H1 before costs −0.2%divergence H1 after costs −28.7%zero line H1zero line H1 before costs −3.9%zero line H1 after costs −31.1%cross 12-26-9 H1cross 12-26-9 H1 before costs +19.7%cross 12-26-9 H1 after costs −41.7%cross 8-17-9 H1cross 8-17-9 H1 before costs +1.8%cross 8-17-9 H1 after costs −78.0%histogram turn H1histogram turn H1 before costs −11.2%histogram turn H1 after costs −85.6%cross 5-35-5 H1cross 5-35-5 H1 before costs +4.4%cross 5-35-5 H1 after costs −103.2%

ALL TESTSAll 10 tests

ConditionTradesWin rateBefore costsAfter costs1st half2nd halfRandom avg
cross 12-26-9 H139,93234.0%+19.7%−41.7%−34.2%−7.5%−63.5%
cross 12-26-9 D12,09034.4%−2.2%−5.2%+3.8%−9.0%−2.3%
cross 5-35-5 H169,13831.0%+4.4%−103.2%−69.5%−33.7%−109.0%
cross 8-17-9 H151,39533.4%+1.8%−78.0%−57.0%−21.1%−81.0%
cross 19-39-9 H130,68833.8%+35.1%−12.0%−6.9%−5.2%−49.2%
cross 5-35-5 D13,53733.9%+5.8%+0.7%+5.4%−4.6%−3.6%
zero line H117,69028.4%−3.9%−31.1%−17.7%−13.4%−24.4%
cross beyond zero H120,51350.2%+13.0%−18.6%−13.8%−4.8%−33.2%
histogram turn H147,87549.5%−11.2%−85.6%−56.3%−29.3%−76.4%
divergence H118,71749.7%−0.2%−28.7%−16.2%−12.5%−31.8%

Next: RSI →

This diary records tests on historical data. It does not recommend any method or symbol and does not indicate future profit or loss. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.