DIARY
Do moving averages work?
SMA and EMA crosses, price crosses, pullbacks and slopes: 52 tests.
RESULTConclusion
- 1 of 22 H1 crosses were positive after costs.
- 20 of 22 daily crosses were positive. But most lost in the first half and relied on the second half's rally, and they were no better than random holds of the same direction and length (random averaged a gain).
- The best of all 52 tests, D1 EMA 50/200, made +25.6% after costs, with −10.2% in the first half. There is no statistical evidence that it beat random.
- No edge from moving averages was confirmed.
BY GROUPAverage by timeframe and type
The difference between SMA and EMA was smaller than the difference between timeframes.
Before costsAfter costs
OTHER USESOther uses
| Condition | Trades | Win rate | Before costs | After costs | 1st half | 2nd half | Random avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 20 H1 | 60,930 | 23.0% | +1.6% | −91.2% | −57.3% | −33.9% | −92.4% |
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 20 D1 | 3,006 | 26.7% | −3.0% | −7.3% | −2.7% | −4.5% | +3.9% |
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 50 H1 | 36,284 | 19.0% | −1.3% | −57.1% | −31.8% | −25.3% | −54.3% |
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 50 D1 | 1,679 | 22.8% | +11.6% | +9.0% | −1.0% | +10.0% | +9.0% |
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 200 H1 | 17,320 | 13.4% | +2.0% | −24.6% | −17.7% | −6.9% | −22.1% |
| Reverse when the close crosses SMA 200 D1 | 723 | 13.6% | +4.6% | +3.3% | −13.5% | +16.8% | +26.6% |
| Pullback to SMA20 with the trend | 21,466 | 33.1% | −20.0% | −52.5% | −27.7% | −24.8% | −30.1% |
| Follow the SMA200 slope every 24 bars | 10,707 | 48.0% | −8.6% | −24.4% | −10.8% | −13.6% | −13.4% |
ALL CROSSESAll 44 crosses
| Condition | Trades | Win rate | Before costs | After costs | 1st half | 2nd half | Random avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 SMA 5/50 | 17,857 | 28.1% | −6.0% | −33.5% | −17.5% | −16.0% | −25.0% |
| H1 SMA 5/100 | 12,023 | 24.8% | +2.6% | −15.8% | −14.7% | −1.2% | −15.0% |
| H1 SMA 5/200 | 8,063 | 21.4% | +6.0% | −6.1% | −5.3% | −0.9% | −7.3% |
| H1 SMA 10/50 | 13,786 | 32.1% | −10.6% | −32.1% | −16.6% | −15.5% | −17.6% |
| H1 SMA 10/100 | 9,068 | 28.1% | −5.0% | −19.3% | −17.6% | −1.7% | −10.5% |
| H1 SMA 10/200 | 5,991 | 25.5% | +7.3% | −2.1% | −2.9% | +0.8% | −3.4% |
| H1 SMA 20/50 | 11,537 | 34.7% | −11.0% | −29.4% | −10.1% | −19.3% | −14.7% |
| H1 SMA 20/100 | 6,986 | 32.5% | −0.7% | −11.8% | −11.1% | −0.7% | −6.0% |
| H1 SMA 20/200 | 4,553 | 28.6% | +7.7% | +0.6% | −0.6% | +1.2% | −0.6% |
| H1 SMA 50/100 | 5,691 | 35.9% | −4.9% | −13.6% | −13.3% | −0.3% | −4.9% |
| H1 SMA 50/200 | 3,237 | 34.4% | −0.5% | −5.3% | −6.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% |
| H1 EMA 5/50 | 18,878 | 24.5% | −1.9% | −30.8% | −20.6% | −10.2% | −26.1% |
| H1 EMA 5/100 | 13,110 | 21.9% | −1.6% | −21.5% | −15.3% | −6.2% | −14.4% |
| H1 EMA 5/200 | 9,295 | 19.5% | +2.6% | −11.5% | −6.3% | −5.2% | −8.7% |
| H1 EMA 10/50 | 13,746 | 26.7% | −2.3% | −23.5% | −17.6% | −5.9% | −17.5% |
| H1 EMA 10/100 | 9,562 | 24.9% | +1.2% | −13.4% | −11.1% | −2.3% | −10.0% |
| H1 EMA 10/200 | 6,653 | 22.7% | +4.7% | −5.6% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −3.3% |
| H1 EMA 20/50 | 9,881 | 29.0% | −1.3% | −16.6% | −10.5% | −6.1% | −11.5% |
| H1 EMA 20/100 | 6,974 | 27.2% | +3.8% | −7.1% | −10.5% | +3.4% | −4.6% |
| H1 EMA 20/200 | 4,889 | 25.1% | +5.0% | −2.5% | −1.6% | −0.9% | −1.0% |
| H1 EMA 50/100 | 4,521 | 29.9% | +6.3% | −0.7% | +0.6% | −1.3% | −0.8% |
| H1 EMA 50/200 | 3,215 | 28.0% | +3.5% | −1.5% | −2.2% | +0.7% | +2.3% |
| D1 SMA 5/50 | 849 | 29.3% | +8.7% | +7.4% | −1.0% | +8.4% | +11.8% |
| D1 SMA 5/100 | 537 | 27.9% | +2.7% | +1.8% | −5.8% | +7.6% | +17.7% |
| D1 SMA 5/200 | 353 | 22.1% | +8.2% | +7.6% | −11.3% | +18.8% | +27.3% |
| D1 SMA 10/50 | 656 | 33.7% | +11.6% | +10.6% | −2.8% | +13.4% | +11.0% |
| D1 SMA 10/100 | 409 | 29.3% | +3.5% | +2.8% | −4.9% | +7.7% | +18.2% |
| D1 SMA 10/200 | 259 | 27.0% | +13.0% | +12.5% | −9.2% | +21.7% | +28.5% |
| D1 SMA 20/50 | 554 | 37.0% | +0.5% | −0.4% | −14.5% | +14.1% | +11.5% |
| D1 SMA 20/100 | 329 | 31.0% | −5.1% | −5.7% | −8.7% | +3.0% | +18.1% |
| D1 SMA 20/200 | 186 | 30.6% | +12.2% | +11.9% | −10.5% | +22.4% | +28.9% |
| D1 SMA 50/100 | 270 | 36.3% | +2.1% | +1.7% | −7.5% | +9.2% | +18.1% |
| D1 SMA 50/200 | 133 | 39.1% | +12.8% | +12.6% | −7.5% | +20.1% | +30.2% |
| D1 EMA 5/50 | 957 | 26.4% | +11.4% | +9.8% | 0.0% | +9.8% | +12.7% |
| D1 EMA 5/100 | 645 | 25.6% | +16.0% | +15.0% | +0.6% | +14.4% | +19.1% |
| D1 EMA 5/200 | 447 | 21.7% | +17.0% | +16.3% | −8.9% | +25.2% | +27.0% |
| D1 EMA 10/50 | 695 | 29.8% | +10.3% | +9.3% | −3.4% | +12.7% | +14.8% |
| D1 EMA 10/100 | 461 | 28.9% | +11.2% | +10.4% | −3.3% | +13.7% | +21.2% |
| D1 EMA 10/200 | 351 | 22.8% | +14.6% | +14.0% | −13.3% | +27.3% | +27.9% |
| D1 EMA 20/50 | 524 | 29.0% | +3.4% | +2.5% | −8.8% | +11.4% | +16.3% |
| D1 EMA 20/100 | 356 | 28.7% | +9.0% | +8.4% | −6.3% | +14.6% | +22.6% |
| D1 EMA 20/200 | 277 | 24.9% | +10.7% | +10.2% | −10.9% | +21.1% | +27.8% |
| D1 EMA 50/100 | 246 | 29.7% | +15.2% | +14.8% | −6.0% | +20.9% | +24.3% |
| D1 EMA 50/200 | 177 | 28.8% | +25.9% | +25.6% | −10.2% | +35.8% | +30.9% |
This diary records tests on historical data. It does not recommend any method or symbol and does not indicate future profit or loss. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.