WEEK BY WEEKWeek by week
Prior week: June payrolls were released early on Thursday July 2 at +57k versus roughly 115k expected, and September rate-hike bets faded. US stocks set quarter-end records on June 30 and the Dow hit a record on July 2. Bitcoin touched a 21-month low near $57.7k on July 1 but finished the week about 6% higher. US markets were closed on July 3. [1] [2] [3]
Plan: Weak payrolls faded hike bets, supporting equities and gold; stay flat on FX and BTC lacking a clear view.
XAUUSD Long US500 Long
Prior week: The June FOMC minutes on July 8 showed a 9-8 split on whether another hike is coming, with concern about sticky inflation. Gold fell about 1.5% to near $4,103 and WTI rose about 3.5% to roughly $71.20. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,575.39 on July 10, up about 1.3% on the week. [1] [2]
Plan: Ahead of CPI, ride record-high equity momentum and stay flat on gold, BTC and FX.
US500 Long
Prior week: June CPI on July 14 was -0.4% m/m and 3.5% y/y, softer than expected, and July hike odds dropped below 20%. US-Iran strikes kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and WTI jumped about 14% to $81.88. Stocks fell: Nasdaq about -2.9% and the semiconductor index fell more than 20% from its high. [1] [2]
Plan: With oil surging and Mideast risk ahead of the FOMC, mostly stay flat and only lean long USDJPY and short gold.
USDJPY Long XAUUSD Short
Prior week: The ECB held rates and Lagarde said inflation is expected to stay above target into at least H1 2027. Brent topped $100 midweek for the first time since May, then fell toward $96 on Friday. US stocks slipped, with the Magnificent Seven losing about $797B on July 23. The FOMC meets July 28-29 with a hold widely expected. [1] [2]
Plan: With FOMC and big-tech earnings ahead amid oil-driven inflation worries, stay cautious on stocks and lean short gold.
XAUUSD Short
Prior week: The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 vote, with three dissenters favoring a hike. The BoJ held at 1%. The Dow fell 1,153 points on July 29, but strong Microsoft and Amazon results helped the S&P 500 close at a record 7,489.72 on July 31. The 10-year yield rose to about 4.74% and the 30-year neared 5.22%. [1] [2]
Plan: With rising yields and a hawkish Fed, ride US equity strength and stay flat elsewhere.
USDJPY Long US500 Long
Prior week: July payrolls on August 7 showed a loss of 23k versus about +83k expected, with May and June revised down by a combined 103k; unemployment held at 4.1%. Hike bets collapsed and September cut bets revived. Gold rose about 5% to near $4,338, WTI fell about 7% to near $78, and the S&P 500 gained about 3.6% to a record 7,757.64. [1] [2]
Plan: Weak payrolls revive cut bets: stay long gold, short USDJPY, long US equities, stay flat on EURUSD and BTC ahead of CPI.
USDJPY Short XAUUSD Long US500 Long
Prior week: July CPI was +0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y (core 2.5%). July retail sales fell 0.6%, the first drop in nine months. September hike odds fell to about 31% from about 55%. WTI rose about 5.4% to $82.40, gold was near $4,376, and the S&P 500 rose for a third week to 7,785.76. [1] [2]
Plan: Weak US jobs and retail sales fade hike bets; ride gold and equity momentum and lean against the dollar.
EURUSD Long XAUUSD Long US500 Long
Prior week: July FOMC minutes (Aug 19) showed 'many' participants saw tightening as likely necessary if inflation does not decline. The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high of 5.337% on Aug 18. The S&P 500 fell 1.43% to 7,674.37, gold rose about 5.2% to $4,602, and WTI settled at $87.06. Flash composite PMI rose to 56.0, a 52-month high. [1] [2]
Plan: Stay out of stocks and FX amid high long yields and hike worries; ride momentum in gold and bitcoin.
XAUUSD Long BTCUSD Long
Prior week: In his first Jackson Hole speech on Aug 28, Chair Warsh said the Fed will 'have work to do' if inflation does not fall to 2% clearly and fast enough; September hike odds rose from about 35% to about 58% and the 2-year yield jumped to 4.348%. July PCE was 3.7% y/y (core 3.3%). Gold fell about 3.2% on the week to near $4,455. Bitcoin hit about $81,455 on Friday, its highest since May. [1] [2]
Plan: Hawkish Warsh at Jackson Hole lifts hike odds: favor long USD and short gold; stay flat on equities and crypto given mixed signals.
USDJPY Long EURUSD Short XAUUSD Short
Prior week: August payrolls (Sep 4) came in at +162k versus a cluster near 56k expected; unemployment 4.1%, wages +3.1% y/y. On Sep 3 Governor Waller said he is inclined to hold in September if inflation keeps cooling. WTI rose about 9.7% to $91.48. The S&P 500 was roughly flat at 7,718.60 and the 10-year yield was near 4.78%. [1] [2]
Plan: Strong payrolls and a hawkish Fed favor higher US yields and a firmer dollar; stay flat on equities, gold and BTC without a clear view.
USDJPY Long EURUSD Short
Prior week: The ECB raised its deposit rate 25 bp to 2.50% on Sep 10, its second hike this year. August CPI was +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, with core +0.3% m/m above the 0.2% expected. WTI rose 9.4% to settle at $100.05, its first weekly finish above $100 since mid-May. Markets priced about a 90% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike at the Sep 15-16 meeting. The Dow fell 1.6% on the week. [1] [2]
Plan: Oil at $100 and a priced-in Fed hike favor caution on stocks; stay flat on FX, gold and BTC given balanced event risk.
US500 Short
Prior week: The Fed unanimously raised rates 25 bp to 3.75-4.00% on Sep 16, its first hike since 2023. The BoJ raised 25 bp to 1.25% on Sep 17, a 31-year high, and the yen weakened through 157 per dollar. The BoE held at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote. The Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act failed. WTI settled at $100.30 and the 10-year yield touched 5.041% on Sep 15. [1] [2]
Plan: After Fed and BoJ hikes with oil at $100 and 10-year yields near 5%, short only BTC on weak crypto flows and stay flat elsewhere.
BTCUSD Short
Prior week: The flash US composite PMI on Sep 23 rose to 58.4, highest since July 2021, and October hike odds rose to about 73% (about 64-66% by Friday). Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China agreed to extend the Busan trade truce from Nov 10 to Jan 10. The 10-year yield reached about 5.16-5.18%, the highest since 2007. The Nasdaq rose 2.1% on the week and gold fell about 2.1% to near $4,285. [1] [2]
Plan: Fed hike bets and record-high US yields favor long USDJPY; stay flat on gold, equities, EUR and crypto.
USDJPY Long
Prior week: September payrolls (Oct 2) rose 29k versus about 90k expected and unemployment rose to 4.2%. August core PCE was 3.0% y/y, described as cooler. October hike odds plunged to about 18-23% from 64-70%. The RBA raised to 4.60% on Sep 29. The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels via the IEA. Gold fell about 3.4% to near $4,143 and the 10-year yield touched 5.34%, the highest since 2002. [1] [2]
Plan: Weak payrolls cut Fed hike odds, so lean toward a weaker dollar and firmer gold; stay out of equities and crypto for lack of a clear view.
USDJPY Short EURUSD Long XAUUSD Long
Prior week: September FOMC minutes (Oct 7) showed most participants expected another hike by year end. October hike odds were about 17-18% and December about 75-83%. Preliminary October Michigan sentiment was 46.3, current conditions a record-low 44.7, one-year inflation expectations 4.7%. The S&P 500 set a record close of 7,818.93 on Oct 6 and ended at 7,811.54. WTI settled at $91.85 and Brent at $104.72. [1] [2]
Plan: With high yields and oil but little clear direction, only ride equity strength and stay flat elsewhere.
US500 Long
Prior week: September CPI was +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%); PPI rose 1.3% m/m, the most since March 2022. On Oct 16 Chair Warsh, at the IMF meetings, did not prejudge the next meeting and October hike odds fell from about 27% to below 15%. The Kospi fell about 14.5% on the week, the most since October 2008. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% and WTI rose 10.4% to $101.41. [1] [2]
Plan: Oil spike and sticky inflation make equities cautious; long USDJPY on rate differential, stay flat on gold and the rest.
USDJPY Long US500 Short
Prior week: China Q3 GDP grew 4.5% y/y and UK September CPI rose to 3.5%. The flash US composite PMI was 57.6 with the output-price index at its highest since August 2022. Houthis claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities; Brent settled at $116.72, highest close since April 29, and WTI at $103.27. Gold fell about 4% and below $4,000, closing near $3,996. Ahead of the Oct 27-28 FOMC, October hike odds were about 9-10% and December about 78%. The S&P 500 fell about 0.5% on the week. [1] [2] [3]
Plan: Ahead of FOMC, ECB and BoJ, only long USDJPY on rate differentials and high US yields; stay flat elsewhere given mixed signals.
USDJPY Long
